Bet On Nfl Games For Money

NFL BETTING MODEL Updated: Mar 5, 7. Spread Total Lines Game Info Money Line Spread Over/Under Game Info Model. This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real. Defining “Sharp Money” in NFL Sports Betting. For example, lets say there were 100 bets on a game and 65 people (65%) all placed $100 on the favorite at -3. The other 35 people (35%) wagered $500 per game.

You, me, and everyone else loves the NFL. Maybe you’ve been thinking for quite some time now to test the waters in the NFL betting world. We’re here to help you as best we can with some NFL betting tips to steer you in the right direction.

You may love just watching the games and rooting for your team, but responsibly betting on NFL games definitely can make the passive experience of watching sports it more exciting. Billions of dollars are exchanged every year on NFL bets and if you’re looking to start getting into that action, we’ll help you start with some helpful NFL betting tips.

Before we got to the actual NFL betting tips, you first need to understand what kind of bets there actually are.

Moneyline: There will be a triple-digit number at the end of the team name with a “+” (the underdog) or “-” (the favorite), that’s known as the Moneyline. If you bet the Moneyline, you’re betting on whether the team wins straight up. The simplest way to understand a Moneyline bet is on a $100 wager.

For example, if the Atlanta Falcons’ Moneyline is set at -110, you need to bet $110 to win $100. If they’re opponent, the Carolina Panthers is at +110, if you bet $100, you win $110.

Spreads: The team could also have this number next to them. When you see a “-” before the number, this means the team is giving those points (Kansas City Cheifs -4.5 means they start the game down that many points, essentially), a “+” means they are getting those points (New York Jets +4.5 means they start with a 4.5 point lead). For you to hit that bet, the team must win with that set margin.

Total: There will be a number at the end of the matchup, that is what bookmakers have predicted to be the total number of points scored in that game. You have two options: you can bet the total goes over that amount of points, or under.

Those are the basic bets you can make. Now you can easily just start looking at lines and making bets, and you may get lucky, but with these NFL betting tips, you won’t always need luck to win.

Parlay: A parlay is when you make a series of bets to turn into one large bet. You can parlay spreads, moneylines, totals, prop bets, future bets, and even bet on different sports. In order for you to hit the parlay, each bet must hit, if just one doesn’t, you win nothing. The minimum parlay is two, but you can typically have as many bets in your parlay as you want. The reward for hitting a parlay can bring a bigger payout, but the risk is great as well.

Teaser: If you’re looking for a similar type of bet to a parlay without as much risk, another option is a teaser bet. A teaser is like a parlay in that you need to pick a minimum of two games, but you can change the spread of your bets to better your chances of winning. For example, if the Detriot Lions are underdogs at +2.5, you can do a six-point tease, and now that sets them at +8.5, you can make the same adjust with an over-under as well. Betting a teaser allows you to have more of a cushion to win, but this also decreases the payout.

There are people that think just because they are always watching sports means they have the knowledge and can easily win. One thing you must know is that you’re not always going to win. Even the best don’t always get it right.

To know this means you can manage your betting. Before you even place a wager, set a budget. It can be a daily, weekly, monthly, or yearly, but set one.

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Never let betting put your well being in jeopardy.

You would think the more bets you make, the more opportunities there would be to make money, but it also means more opportunities to lose it.

It’s important to only make wagers on the games you feel comfortable with. That could be a few games, that could be only one.

Every week prepare on what games to bet. Read up on the matchups, watched the odds move, and look at team trends. If you feel unsure, don’t make the bet.

Case in point..

Back to people saying that just because they watch sports means they can bet on sports. I hear it all the time: “I watch the games, I’m checking out the highlights, I know what to do.” There’s always more to know to help you gain an advantage.

Have you looked at injury reports? Is the injury something small or could it hinder that player’s performance? Depending on what players are questionable moves the betting line. It’s always good to consistently check the status of players.

What about their previous games? Have they played tougher teams and more competitive games or easier teams giving their starters a break?

All of these factors can play a role in that week’s game.

What’s the weather projected for that day? Warm, windy, snowing, it could all play factors in the game.

Is a West Coast team traveling across the country? West Coast teams tend to struggle because that 1 P.M. game for the home team is 10 A.M. for the visitors.

How well does that defense do against a run-heavy team vs. a pass-heavy? How about against runningbacks who average five catches per-game?

Finding out everything you can about the matchup will give you an edge. You have a whole week to find study up on this stuff.

Basically, be the Monday quarterback of your bets.

First, this will help you keep track of whether or not you’re in the positive or negative during the season, but it also helps with what teams and types of games to go with or avoid.

Team A doesn’t cover the spread on the road? Don’t do it. Team B seems to hit when they play in warm weather? There you go. These opponents have hit the over in their last three matchups? You go with it. Learn and thrive from team history.

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There you have it, now you know the basics behind what certain bets mean and have a few NFL betting tips in your back pocket to get things going in the right direction this NFL season.

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Chances are you have seen or heard of the term “Sharp Money” with regards to NFL handicapping. If not, I strongly encourage you to read over this article carefully.

I’m going to define it, explain it and show you how to follow it. All of which is going to help you increase your profits on the gridiron this season.

Defining “Sharp Money” in NFL Sports Betting

In the sports betting industry a “Sharp” player is someone who the books take seriously. Unlike your recreational gamblers, these guys are serious investors who bet large sums of cash.

It can be a single individual or a group of people, which are often referred to as “betting syndicates.”

So when someone says “Sharp Money,” they are referring to the side of a game that these experts are on.

5 Easy Steps on How to Follow Sharp Money in Pro Football

These sharp players are known for their ability to profit long-term against the books. That’s why there’s such an infatuation with trying to spot and follow their bets.

If you are tired of losing on your own and want to try following the sharps, here are the 5 steps to betting the same side of the professionals.

Step #1: Understanding How the Books Operate

One of the biggest myths in sports betting is the books are trying to get equal money on both sides of a wager. That’s simply not the case.

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Oddsmakers have a great understanding of how your average “public” player likes to bet. They simply can’t help themselves from betting on favorites. They also love to cheer for high scoring games, so they will almost always side with the OVER on the total.

Sportsbooks will use that knowledge and shade the lines in favor of the side they think the public will be on. The more popular or dominant the team, the more they will inflate the line.

Step #2: Watch for Line Movement & Betting Percentages

You are going to need to find an odds feed that shows the betting percentage, opening line and current line. It also helps if they have easy access to the odds history for each game. I personally recommend using this NFL odds feed at SportsCapping.

Before we move on, I want to make sure you know what the bet percentage is referring to. It’s the number of tickets that have been issued for that specific game. Not the total amount of money that’s been bet on that game.

The reason you need both the opening and current line, is so that you can compare the two. You want to be able to easily tell which direction the line is moving.

Step #3: Look for Reverse Line Movement

This is where it all comes together. You want to look for games that aren’t moving in the direction you would expect. Let’s say there is a game that has a 65% bet percentage and the current line is -4. We would expect that to move to -4.5.

That doesn’t always happen. The line will sometimes shift in the other direction. Instead of it going from -4 to -4.5, it jumps from -4 to -3.5. This is what is know as a “Reverse Line Movement.”

What this tells you is while 65% of the tickets are on the favorite, there’s more money coming in on the underdog.

Keep in mind that the majority of the wagers coming in are from amateurs who aren’t betting huge amounts. This is often referred to as the “public” side of a game.

For example, lets say there were 100 bets on a game and 65 people (65%) all placed $100 on the favorite at -3. The other 35 people (35%) wagered $500 per game. Those 65 tickets make up for just $6,500, while the 35 big bettors accounted for more than double $17,500.

The liability with the books is on the underdog. They are going to move the line to try and entice even a bigger percentage of tickets on the other side.

Just note that while you are on the same side as the experts, you are almost always going to get a worse line than them. It might cause you to lose a few games, but long-term it should result in a decent return on your initial investment.

Tip #4: Look for Steam Moves

This requires a little more time glued to the betting odds, but can also turn a profit. Earlier I mentioned that the sharp action could be a group of people known as a betting syndicate.

How these groups work is they like to attack all of the books at once and force what is known as a “Steam Move.” Forcing all of them to adjust their lines at the same time.

Tip #5: Experts Like to Attack Early & Late

While not true for all experts, a lot like to attack lines right when they come out and right before they close.

By betting early they get to take advantage of the initial numbers. Tracking how the line moves at the beginning of the week can really help you spot where the sharps are lurking.

For the most part, the average public player doesn’t even place his wagers until the day of the game. Often waiting to see how much of the bankroll is left over from betting college football on Saturday.

The experts know this and will try to use it to their advantage. Instead of betting on a team right away, they will try to let the public shift the line as high as they can and then attack right before the game starts.

Mistakes to Avoid When Trying to Follow the Sharp Action

The last thing I want to do is share with you some common pitfalls that people have when trying to do this.

#1 – Eliminate Other Factors that Could Result in Line Movement

You need to understand that there are other factors that cause oddsmakers to move a line. The most common being injuries. If they get news of a key player being out, they are going to try and get ahead of the action and move the line.

Note that they sometimes get the info before it’s made public. The line could shift and a key player could be still showing as questionable. It’s typically a good idea to hold off to make sure that injury isn’t what caused the move.

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#2 – Don’t Try to Force a Play on Every Game

Don’t try to force action on every game. If there’s a reverse line movement that has only 51%/49% split, that’s not nearly as good as one with a 65%/35% split.

#3 – It’s Not All About Fading the Public

Yes, the majority of the time you are going to be going against the public when trying to follow the experts.

Just keep in mind that sometimes these two perceived enemies can be on the same side. Don’t get in the habit of just trying to bet every single game against the public.

#4 – Trust the Process

This is the biggest key of them all. This is not a bullet-proof system that is going to win 75% of the time. No one wins at rate for an extended period of time. Your focus simply needs to be on hitting 55% of your bets.

Don’t get discouraged if a few plays lose in a row. Understand that if you trust the process, you will add to your bankroll long-term. This also means putting your bias aside. Trust what the line movement is telling you and let the sharps make the decisions on who to bet.